Start the week of September 13, 2021 with our Forex forecast focusing on major currency pairs here.
The euro continues to chop around, seemingly looking for direction. At this point, the only clear sign of support I see is at the 1.16 level, but there does seem to be some minor attraction to the 1.18 handle. The market will more than likely continue the mundane action, with a range-bound system most likely being the best way to play a market trying to figure out where it wants to go next. This is a market that I am very neutral on now, as both central banks aren’t exactly hawkish at this point.
Unlike the euro, the pound seems to have a bit of strength in it. This isn’t to say that the market will go straight up in the air, but that the pound at least has been fighting to make highs again. The most obvious area of trouble above is going to be the 1.40 level, and I think it is going to take some work to get there. That being said, I am somewhat neutral in this pair as well, but with a slight upward bias. I plan on buying short-term dips for small long positions. If we can every break above the 1.40 level, then I would plan on being much more aggressive at that point.
The US dollar rose against the Canadian dollar for most of last week. This is partly due to the somewhat flat tone of the Bank of Canada this week. However, let us not get too hasty to write off the Loonie, as the oil market is influential for the price of it. That being said, there is a bit of divergence between the two at the moment, so this is worth watching. The Loonie hasn’t been acting ‘quite right’ lately. The 1.28 area is a major barrier, so if we break that – I think we go much higher. Oddly enough, I think we are in a short-term ‘buy on the dips’ scenario as long as we stay above the 1.25 handle.
The Aussie has been a bit soft over the last few days, despite the stronger-than-anticipated GDP figures. This is more likely than not a symptom of concerns in the Chinese economy, which the currency is so highly leveraged to. Because of this, I am fading rallies until we get a daily close above the 0.7425 handle. I thought this was about to happen, but things turned around yet again.