USDCAD closes the week just above its 100 day MA. Key barometer for buyers and sellers in the new week


100 day MA at 1.25404.

The USDCAD closed last week right at its 100 day MA. That MA is at 1.2540. The pair closed at 1.2551 (blue line on the daily chart below).

Looking at the week’s price action, of significance technically, was the

  • Bbreak above the 200 day MA (green line) at 1.24711 on Wednesday’s dollar buying surge ( the higher CPI). 
  • That momentum continued on Thursday after the pair first based against the 200 day MA and then pushed through the higher 100 day MA (blue line)
  • The move up on Thursday tested the 50% midpoint of the run lower from the September high (at 1.2591 – the high reached 1.2595 before rotating back lower).  
  • On Friday, the 50% was broken with a bit more momentum to the week’s high at 1.26038, before coming back down helped by the weaker Michigan sentiment numbers and stalling near the 100 day MA in the NY afternoon session.
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With the 100 day MA so broken, and the retested, that level becomes the early barometer for buyers and sellers in the new trading week. Stay above is more bullish. Move below is more bearish.  Traders will look for momentum away from that MA line.

Hold the MA and the 50% becomes the key target once again followed by breaking the high from last week at 1.2603.  The swing highs going back to March and April between 1.2646 and 1.2654 followed by the 61.8% retracement at 1.26627 become the targets.

Break below the 100 day MA and buyers should be disappointed on the failed break of the 100 day MA and 50% retracement. The breaking of the 38.2% the 1.25193 would be a confirming break with a return back to the swing area (see green numbered circles) between 1.24739 and 1.24914 as targets. The 200 day MA just below that area at 1.2471 would also be on the traders radar as support.   

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Drilling to the hourly chart below, the rising 100 hour moving average currently at 1.24988 be a another downside target on a break lower. Below that the 200 hour moving average is moving closer to the 200 day moving average near the 1.2471 area and increases that levels importance should there be more downside momentum.  .

USDCAD on the hourly chart

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