US Open – Stocks on hold ahead of Trump, ZEW Expectations, Oil rises, Gold steady

  


US stocks appear on hold ahead of President Donald Trump’s speech before the Economic Club of New York.  Markets are eagerly awaiting his latest update on trade with both the Europeans and Chinese.  Trump is widely expected to hold off on a decision on whether to hit European carmakers with tariffs.  German car manufacturers have suggested they are considering moving global production to the Americas.    

ZEW

In Germany the ZEW expectations survey posted its best reading since May and provided some optimism that a bottom is in place for Germany.  The ZEW expectations survey could point to rebound in German GDP early next year.  Germany is expected to enter a technical recession on Thursday, but with a bottom possibly in sight, the euro could see limited pressure.

Oil

Energy markets are really not buying OPEC members that are saying they will not deliver deeper production cuts.  On Tuesday, Oman’s oil minister Rumhy noted they will stick with current levels of output.  Oversupply risks in 20200 could deliver a strong blow to oil prices, which could easily take Brent prices back towards $50 a barrel. We could hear more cautious comments from OPEC members over the coming weeks, but ultimately see the Saudis lead the charge in December for deeper its cuts. 

The Aramco IPO will have the institutional book-building period lead up to the 177th OPEC Meeting on December 5th.  The Saudis will not want to gamble with this IPO as it is key to their vision for 2030.  The street is somewhat split on whether OPEC + needs deeper cuts, but with too much at stake for the Saudis in the short-term, they will want to have strong oil prices going into the final pricing of their IPO.  

Gold

Gold appears to be in a holding pattern while also barely hanging on a thread ahead of President Trump’s speech at the Economic Club of NY.  If everything goes as planned and we hear both mixed comments on China and a delay with the decision for tariffs on EU automakers, we could see limited downside for gold prices.  With gold hovering around key support, a Trump Christmas surprise could deliver a blow to all safe-havens. If Trump chooses to announce any major trade breakthroughs, we could see US stocks reinvigorated and safe-havens punished across the board.   

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute fundamental analysis of geo-political events and monetary policies in the US, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. Over the course of his career, he has worked with some of the world’s leading forex brokerages and research departments including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including BNN, CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg. He is often quoted in leading print and online publications such as the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. He holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University. Follow Ed on Twitter @edjmoya ‏

Ed Moya

Ed Moya



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