Stay above MAs tilts the bias back to the upside
The EURUSD moved sharply higher yesterday and in the process extended above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines). The break above accelerated the upside momentum at the time. The price high also moved above a swing area at the 1.1060 to 1.10678 area.
Today, the price try to extend higher in the Asian session only to run out of steam. There was an attempt to get back above the 1.10678 level (see red circle 7), but sellers turned the price away and the pair fell back to the 100 and 200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines).
There was a break below the 200 hour moving average (green line) at 1.10408. That should have increased the bearish bias. However, the dip below the moving averages did not last long and the sellers turned back to buyers on the failed break (see chart above).
In the New York session the price has now moved above its 100 hour moving average at 1.10494 (blue line).
Staying above the moving averages would tilt the bias more to the upside for traders today. A break back below would be more bearish.
On the topside, getting above 1.10678 is hurdle number 1, followed by the high for the day at 1.1075. Above that the 1.10847 – 1.10866 area is another swing area (see hourly chart above).
Taking a look at the daily chart below , the 1.1100 to 1.1109 area remains a key area.
Recall from prior posts on the EURUSD, that area is defined by swing lows from April, May and July (see daily chart below). Last week, the high price stalled at 1.1109 – respecting the area in the process. I consider it another key barometer for the pair going forward (arguably the most important area in the near term technically). Move above terms bias more bullish. Stay below and sellers remain in control.
So intraday, sellers had the shot below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages, but failed. It will take a move back below to increase the bearish bias. On the topside there are a number of resistance target’s to get to and through, with the 1.1100 – 09 area as key for the longer-term technical bias.