US Dollar Rebound Hinges on Reduction in Fed Rate Cut Odds
Top FX Headlines Talking Points: The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) is testing resistance in the downtrend dating back to the late-May highs. After the June US retail sales… Read more »
Tag: odds
US Dollar Sinks During Powell Testimony as Fed Rate Cut Odds Surge
Central Bank Weekly Talking Points: Fed Chair Powell said that “uncertainties since [the] June FOMC continue to dim [the economic] outlook,” a not-so-subtle hint that the US-China trade war is… Read more »
Chart Of The Day: Euro Reversing On Reduced Rate Cut Odds
Friday’s U.S. data revealed that jobs growth—a central cog in this economy’s longevity and a fundamental catalyst for the longest bull market on record—is back. After the release, all hell… Read more »
UK sovereign curve inverts out to 10 years as rate cut odds jump after Carney
10-year yield below Bank of England rate The UK 10-year is yielding just 0.723%. The drop comes after Carney’s comments as the market increasingly prices in a rate cut. It’s… Read more »
Slower economy boosts stocks, odds of Fed rate cut, sends bad news bears running
Getty Images A scene from the hit 1976 film ‘Bad News Bears.” Investors have been flooded with a series of reports showing a softer economy, but not bad enough… Read more »
British Pound Forecast Weakens as Hard Brexit Odds Rise
Brexit Latest Talking Points: The first round of the UK’s Tory party leadership contest saw Boris Johnson (114 votes) easily blow past other contenders, with the second (Jeremy Hunt –… Read more »
US Dollar Steadies as Fed Rate Cut Odds Stabilize
Top FX News Talking Points: Fed rate cut odds have moderated in the past few days, with the probability of two rate cuts in 2019 dropping from 86% chance at… Read more »
USO & BIL ETF Demand Driven by Oil Recovery, Rate Cut Odds
USO & BIL ETF Flows: The USO ETF saw increased demand as investors attempted to call the bottom in crude oil’s price Similarly, the T-Bill-tracking BIL ETF enjoys inflows amid… Read more »
Rising Fed Rate Cut Odds Sink US Dollar; May US Inflation Report Due
Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral The US Dollar has been dragged lower by skyrocketing Fed rate cut odds: markets are now pricing in a 96% chance of one… Read more »
Dollar Index Vulnerable As Fed Rate-Cut Odds Explode Higher
The recent price action in the has been interesting to say the least. Since the start of 2018, the greenback has benefitted from a relative yield advantage over its G10… Read more »