Strong USD to Pressure Under 1800 Before CPI

  


  • Gold price remains on the backfoot below the $1,800 mark.
  • Fed tapering speculations may further exacerbate the bearish pressure.
  • US CPI data will be the key event for the gold next week.

The weekly gold price forecast suggests a bearish scenario as the US dollar gains traction from rising US bonds yields and the Fed’s tapering speculations.

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A calm start to the new week saw gold consolidate the gains of the previous week. XAU/USD fell 1.6% on Tuesday as risk-averse markets helped the dollar find support after the Labor Day holidays. It recovered a small portion of its losses on Thursday but lost nearly 2% for the week as a whole.

The market forecast for August exports was 17.1%, but the data showed a 25.6% increase. Further, Eurostat reported that the Eurozone’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.2% on a quarterly basis in the second quarter, beating analysts’ expectations of 0.6%. However, global stock market sentiment deteriorated despite these optimistic data. In turn, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.35%, causing XAU/USD to fall.

We will begin the week with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Tuesday. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said on Friday that she saw risks of raising inflation forecasts and said she should begin tapering before the end of the year. Likewise, Rafael Bostick, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, said that the tapering would be appropriate at some point this year.

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Investors may begin pondering a reduction in the Fed’s asset purchases if the consumer price index is stronger than expected, and vice versa.

Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan will be released on Friday ahead of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Review, released on Thursday.

Key events in Japan during Sep 13 – 17

USD/JPY weekly forecast

The Japanese economic calendar for the next week is quite light. However, PPI figures, industrial production and machinery orders data may provide slight volatility to the market.

Key events in the US during Sep 13 – 17

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The next week comes up with yearly core inflation data, which is expected to slightly decline. However, a major surprise in numbers can trigger a big movement in the market. Furthermore, retail sales data will be released on Tuesday, which is expected to slightly improve. Retail sales data is important as it is considered an indicator to gauge market activity. Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment data is expected to release, which may support the US dollar.

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Gold weekly technical forecast: Bearish dominance ahead

Gold daily chart - weekly forecast
Gold daily chart – weekly forecast

The gold prices stayed below the key SMAs for the entire week. Tuesday’s widespread down bar came up with a very high volume and closed at the lows. The price formed a double top at $1,833 and falling since then. This could be a sign of a top-reversal pattern. However, the price may attempt to test or break the double top in the coming week. On the downside, the price may test support levels at $1,772 ahead of $1,750.

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