“Old” news but good news. New York Fed GDPNowcast estimate for 4Q growth up on the week


NY Fed 4Q GDP forecast moved higher this week.

The New York Fed estimate for 4Q GDP, must have been quietly released.  I did not see the headline at least.  

In any case, it is usually released sometime Friday morning.  

The “old” news, but good news is that the estimate picked up to 0.71% from 0.39% last week. That broke a string of 8 consecutive weeks when the estimate either was unchanged or lower. The high over that period was at 2.0%. The low was last week’s 0.39% (rounded to 0.4%).  

Contributors this week included building permits (+0.19%), housing starts (+0.08%) and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing business outlook current activity (+0.05%).  There were no negative contributors.  

The Atlanta Fed will not release their next estimate until November 27. The last estimate from November 19 came in at 0.4%.

Other estimates from market sources include;

  • CNBC, 1.5%
  • Goldman, 1.9%
  • Natixis, HFE, 1.5%
  • Amherst 2.1%

So the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed are still the outliers in relation to others (or so it seems).  The central banks estimates model off of recent data. There is the opportunity for changes as new data is released. Also the models may have a negative bias due to the GM strike and implications from it, that might be reversed down the road.

From the Fed’s models view, the growth is pretty anemic. From the others, it is not 3-4% but is is close to the trend growth of 2% that most economists/Fed officials expect.  

NY Fed 4Q GDP forecast moved higher this week.


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