NY Fed Nowcast estimate for 4Q growth rises to 1.3% from 0.7% last week


Pushes above the 1% level

The NY Fed Nowcast estimate for fourth-quarter GDP growth has risen to 1.3% from 0.7% last week. Their forecast runs counter to the Atlanta Fed which is currently up at 2.3%. The Atlanta Fed is scheduled to revise their estimate today.  

Contributors this week included:

  • industrial production, added 0.24%
  • capacity utilization, added 0.21%
  • housing starts, added 0.10%
  • building permits, added 0.08%

Overall there was only one negative contributor. That came from data revisions which attracted -0.02%.

Below is the summary of the models changes and graphical view of the models forecasts since early September.  

New York Fed now cast estimate for fourth-quarter's growth


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