Global economy runs risk of self-fulfilling downturn


Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle speaking.

The topic is “Risks to the Outlook”

Headlines via Reuters:

  • says China – US trade dispute causing significant uncertainty for business
  • businesses waiting to see how uncertainty resolves rather than invest
  • says reluctance to invest runs the risk of a self-fulfilling downturn
  • plausible that effects of technology dispute will be larger than that of tariffs
  • firms might have to chose between east and west rather than selling into global market
  • says trade is increasingly being used as a bargaining tool of choice
  • China stimulus has, so far, offset impact of trade dispute on Australia
  • says primary risk to domestic economy is outlook for consumption
  • says do not expect much of an increase in wages growth, employment seen “reasonable”
  • evidence that fall in house prices has reached its end, may start supporting consumption
  • says assumes households will spend around half of tax refunds
  • says increasingly necessary to assess the risks from climate change

Full text:

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle speaking.

AUD not much changed on the speech. The focus a bit later on is the jobs report:


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