EURUSDs runs out of steam after break higher stalls. What next?


Failed break.  Price trades down to test 38.2% and 100 hour MA.

Another up and down for the EURUSD as the market digests the blue wave potential and looks toward the Congressional electoral college certification (or some dramatic surprise) later today. 

Failed break.  Price trades down to test 38.2% and 100 hour MA. 

IN the NY session, the pair has moved back down and just moved to a new session low for the day to 1.22646.  

That run lower came after the pair broke twice above the ceiling from last week and Monday’s trade at 1.23093 area (see hourly chart above).  

The first break was in the early Asian session and took the price to a high at 1.2325. The subsequent fall on the hourly chart, took the price back down to retest the 100 hour MA (see blue line on the hourly chart above).

After finding support at the MA and bouncing, the pair raced back above the old ceiling on it’s way to 1.23488.  

The last 5 hours has seen the price rotate back to the downside. As mentioned, the pair has reached new lows and in the process has dipped back below the 100 hour MA (blue line) and a an upward sloping trend line at 1.22782, but did find support near the 38.2% of the trading range since December 21 at 1.22646. In fact that was the precise low for the day just reached.  

What next?

The price is currently trading back above the 100 hour MA which will be eyed by intraday traders looking for another “up” bounce.  Stay above and the 1.2309 area becomes the target once again.  It is not unusual for old broken resistance to reestablish that level as a resistance once again.  

If the pair starts to trade back below the 100 hour moving average, falling below the 38.2% retracement at 1.22646 will have traders looking toward the 200 hour moving average at 1.22496 (and rising – see green line in the chart above)

Yields have pushed higher with the 10 year now trading above 1% to 1.0439%. The low from earlier today reached 0.9432%. Gold is tumbling and is trading down -$44.60 or -2.29% at $1905.60.  

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