Dollar selling as investors shun the safety of the USD.
Whether right or wrong, the Pavlovian reaction on risk on flows is for the USD to get hit. That has the EUR racing higher today. The range is currently 90 pips. The average over the last 22 days has been 77 pips. Good buying demand in the pair.
Technically, going back to yesterday’s trading, the pair start the week by falling below its 200 hour moving average for the 1st time since May 18. However a trendline connecting lows from May 14, May 15 in May 18 stalled the fall and once back above the 200 hour moving average, the price has stayed above that level (see green line).
In trading today, getting above the 100 hour moving average at 1.0931 area (blue line) give more confidence to the buyers. The price raced even higher. The last 4 hours the price has traded above and below its 100 day moving average at 1.09573, with a New York opening surge to new highs for the day at 1.09796.
Close risk now will be eyed at the 100 day moving average at 1.09573. Stay above that level and the buyers are in full control. Move below and the waters are little bit more muddy, especially given the waffling above and below of the last few hours. The buyers are making another play above and away from the 100 day moving average. Staying above would give those buyers the most confidence (and scare the sellers).
Looking at the daily chart below, if the price can stay above the 100 day MA, the 1.09885 area will be eyed with the falling 200 day MA (marginally) at 1.10099 as the next key target. The price has not been above the 200 day MA since March 30.