- USD strength on the FOMC rate statement last night. If the Fed was not going to hike again this year this was the time to signal it. The Fed didn’t and that was seen as Hawkish. Remember too the seasonal strength for USD. See Adam’s post here.
- CAD is under pressure from falling Oil prices. Remember that USD/CAD is 95%+ correlated with Oil. Falling oil=rising USD/CAD and vice versa
- There is some controversy on the final text of the USMCA deal which resulted in a strong CAD sell off post FOMC. See here
Putting these factors together means there is good reason to expect USD/CAD to be bought in the next session. Check out the chart below for potential entry on a Fib pullback at the 61.8% retracement level.