ECB cuts 2020 GDP forecast to -8.7%, lowers inflation forecasts

  


The latest forecasts

ECB forecasets June 4 2020

The baseline is -8.7% this year with a 5.2% rebound in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022. The March forecast was +0.8% for this year.

  • 2021 +5.2% vs +1.3% prior
  • 2022 +3.3% vs +1.4% prior

The basic outline here is that it will take until 2022 to recoup the growth lost this year. That’s not what the market wants to hear in terms of a quick rebound. The market was looking at something like an 8.0% GDP decline this year.

Inflation:

  • 2020 +0.3% vs +1.1% in March
  • 2021 +0.8% vs +1.4% in March
  • 2022 +1.3% vs +1.6% in March

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