Crude Oil Price Analysis & News
- Crude Oil Soars as $70 Comes Into Focus
- JMMC Show Signs of Confidence in Oil Outlook Despite India virus cases
A strong week thus far for oil prices as Brent hits $68/bbl, rising over 3% on the week. The recent JMMC meeting had been encouraging for oil bulls as members had showed signs of confidence in the outlook for oil, having made no recommendations to alter current plan of easing production quotas from next month, despite the recent surge in virus cases across India.
Details of current production quota plan are as follows:
- OPEC eases output quota by 350kbpd in May and June, following a by 450kbpd easing in July.
- In that time, Saudi Arabia will unwind its voluntary 1mbpd cut by 250kbpd in May, 350kbpd in June and 400kbpd in July.
On the demand side, as mobility increases with international travel restrictions being eased, pent-up travel demand is likely to underpin oil going forward in the Summer months and thus could see Brent crude make another break above $70/bbl in the coming weeks. Alongside this, risk appetite remains supportive as US indices hit fresh record highs, while the Fed shows little signs as of yet that they will taper down their very accommodative policy with Powell continuing to downplay inflationary risks.
The one risk however, is additional supply coming in from Iran, should JCPOA talks yield an agreement in the short term. Reports from AP overnight suggesting that the US are mulling a major rollback of sanctions against Iran in order to reach a breakthrough. This is likely to be a factor at play in the next few weeks.
Taking a look at the chart, with Brent crude futures at one month highs having broken above $68.08, there is little in the way of notable resistance until the psychological $70 handle. On the downside, dips are likely to find support at the 50DMA ($65.46).
Brent Crude Chart: Daily Time Frame