Bullish Trend Intact After the RBA


The pair will likely remain in a bullish trend in the near term.

Bullish view

  • Buy the AUD/USD and add a take-profit at 0.7500.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.7350.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

  • Set a sell-stop at 0.7415 and a take-profit at 0.7350.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.7500.

The AUD/USD price was little changed after the latest interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the relatively strong Chinese trade numbers. The pair is trading at 0.7440, which is in the same range it was in the past few days.

RBA Interest Rate Decision

The RBA concluded its two-day meeting on Tuesday morning and did what most analysts were expecting. The bank left interest rates unchanged at 0.10%, where they have been in the past few weeks. This was in line with the previous guidance that the bank does not intend to raise interest rates any time soon.

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The RBA also decided to continue with its asset purchase program in a bid to support an economy that is going through a difficult time. In the past few months, New South Wales and Victoria have been in a lockdown, which has affected the country’s growth. This is notable since the two states represent about 55% of the country’s GDP.

Still, the bank is expected to start winding down the asset purchase program. Besides, Philip Lowe, the governor, believes that the best response mechanism to the current wave of the pandemic is based on fiscal stimulus. Analysts expect that the country’s economy will contract in the third quarter and then stage a rebound in the last three months of the year.

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The AUD/USD also reacted to the strong trade numbers from China. The data revealed that the country’s exports expanded by 25.6% in August, a major rebound from the previous 19.3%. In the same period, the country’s imports rose by 33.1%, a major improvement from the previous 28.1%. As a result, the Chinese trade surplus exploded by almost $2 billion to more than $58.34 billion.

AUD/USD Forecast

The AUD/USD pair has been in an overall bullish trend in the past few weeks. The pair has moved from the August low of 0.7100 to 0.7480. Along the way, it has moved above the 25-day and 15-day moving averages (MA). It remains slightly above the ascending trendline shown in black while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to around 50.

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Therefore, the pair will likely remain in a bullish trend in the near term. If this happens, the next key level to watch will be 0.7500. A drop below 0.7400 will invalidate this view.


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