Highlights of the latest BOC survey
The Business Outlook Survey is an underrated guide for the Bank of Canada. Poloz increasingly relies on it as a barometer for what’s coming next in the economy and the latest numbers are good, especially on the forward-looking indicators.
The numbers just released show the key measure of futures sales up to +23 from +6. The overall survey also rose to +0.2 from -0.6. It’s confirmation that the economy is coming out of the year-end soft patch and confirmation that the BOC won’t cut.
- Investment spending +20 vs +20 prior
- Employment +36 vs +35 prior
- Some or significant capacity pressures +42 vs +31 prior
- Labour shortages +26 vs +19
- Input prices -6 vs +2
- Output prices +7 vs -6
- Inflation expectations largely unchanged from prior survey
The Canadian dollar is higher on the headlines but still reluctant to push through the highs of the year.