Australian Dollar (AUD) Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD

  


Australian Dollar Price Outlook:

  • AUD/USD tested support around 0.6678 before probing trendline resistance overhead and retreating
  • AUD/JPY has encountered a topside barrier around 74
  • Elsewhere, AUD/NZD will look to pierce a price barrier around 1.0435

AUD/USD Technical Forecast

The Australian Dollar has suffered as US Dollar strength and risk aversion has worked to pressure AUD/USD to longstanding support around 0.6678. The level has helped to buoy price multiple times in recent months, but continued retests could speak to further bearishness ahead. In pursuit a recovery rally, AUD/USD will have to reclaim horizontal support and breach the descending trendline overhead.

AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (October 2018 – February 2020)

AUDUSD Price Chart

That being said, a brief test below the level on Friday could have opened the door to further losses. Trading at an 11-year low already, a confirmed break beneath the line may allow USD bulls to press to 0.6560 due to the scarcity of technical support. Consequently, the risk-reward profile of AUD/USD is tilted to the downside in my opinion. IG Client Sentiment Data also suggests further losses may be in store as the vast majority of retail traders are net-long.

AUD/USD
BEARISH

Data provided by



of clients are net long.



of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 0% -23% -6%
Weekly -8% -9% -8%

AUD/JPY Technical Forecast

Similar price action is observable in AUD/JPY as a brief rally last week was quickly reversed after probing resistance around 74. With a daily close beneath the descending trendline around 73.40, AUD/JPY has been left vulnerable to further losses in the coming week. Therefore, the pair may test 72.48 in an attempt to break lower and probe support around 72.

AUD/JPY Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (September 2019 – February 2020)

AUDJPY Price Chart

AUD/JPY
BULLISH

Data provided by



of clients are net long.



of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -6% 10% 0%
Weekly -10% 30% 3%

Sentiment is similarly bearish as a majority of IG Clients favor AUD/JPY strength. Sign up for my webinar below to learn how to incorporate IG Client Sentiment Data in your trading strategy. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis.

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AUD/NZD Forecast

In pursuit of Aussie strength, AUD/NZD may be an attractive pair over the longer term, but it stands at an unappealing position from a risk-reward perspective at present. After rallying versus the Kiwi last week, the pair has encountered confluent resistance around 1.0435. Together, the barriers will look to spark a reversal lower which could see AUD/NZD return to Fibonacci support around 1.0352 before a run at 1.03 can be attempted.

AUD/NZD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January 2019 – February 2020)

AUDNZD Price Chart

Considering the current standing of AUD/NZD, it may be prudent for a more attractive set up as the long lower wick on Friday’s daily candle speaks to sustained bullish interest but technical resistance looms immediately overhead.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX





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