Aussie Nov Employment +39.9K vs +15 ex (AUD rallies to 0.6877)

  


  • The Australian dollar rises 0.28% after Australian jobs data. 
  • The employment rise of 39,900 was made up of a rise of 4,200 in full-time employment.
  • Part-time employment rose 35,700.
  • Forecasts centred on a rise of 14,000 in employment and the unemployment rate at 5.3%, a Reuters poll showed – The data is bullish for AUD. 
  • November employment +39.9k s/adj (reuters poll: +14.0k) – bullish.
  • November unemployment rate +5.2 pct, s/adj (reuters poll: +5.3) – bullish.
  • November full time employment +4.2k s/adj.
  • November participation rate +66.0 pct, s/adj (reuters poll: +66.0 pct).

Trend estimates

  • Employment increased by 17,400 to 12,962,000 people. Full-time employment increased by 8,300 to 8,843,600 people and part-time employment increased by 9,000 to 4,118,400 people.
  • Unemployment decreased by 1,200 to 716,300 people.
  • Unemployment rate decreased by less than 0.1 pts to 5.2%.
  • Participation rate remained steady at 66.1%.
  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 2.3 million hours to 1,782.8 million hours.

Seasonally adjusted estimates

  • Employment increased by 39,900 to 12,954,400 people. Full-time employment increased by 4,200 to 8,837,300 people and part-time employment increased by 35,700 to 4,117,200 people.
  • Unemployment decreased by 16,800 to 708,100 people.
  • Unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 pts to 5.2%.
  • Participation rate remained steady at 66.0%.
  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 2.9 million hours to 1,781.2 million hours.

Conclusion

Following the latest set of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes, today’s labour force data took up a special focus considering the next Gross Domestic Product is not due until March. 

The highlight in the RBA minutes was that members had “agreed that it would be important to reassess the economic outlook in February 2020.” This has lead to the suspicion that such a reassessment could end up in a rate cut if, what the “gentle turning point” as identified by the RBA is still evident. We have also seen a fall in the weaker-than-expected third-quarter Gross Domestic Product as well as Retail Sales. 

This report will have been closely watched in respect to the RBA’s 4 February policy decision and raises the bar for a rate cut so soon as Feb. Markets were pricing a 60% chance of easing at the Feb RBA meeting, and a terminal rate of 0.41% (RBA cash rate currently at 0.75%), according to analysts at Westpac. 

AUD/USD daily chart

  • Support levels: 0.6830 0.6800 0.6770.
  • Resistance levels: 0.6865 0.6900 0.6935 .

The daily chart is constructively bullish, albeit the price us below the trendline resistances and 200-DMA. However, a break through 0.6950 would be a high conviction long.

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD



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