Up and down day for the pair
The AUDUSD has been trending to the downside over the last week or so as the wild fires have traders thinking the RBA may have to ease to offset impact from the fires. Stray, the price fell below its 200 day moving average (currently at 0.68942) and the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the December 10 low at 0.68883.
Today, the price action has been up and down as the market wrestled with the geopolitical news from the Middle East. However, on a move to the upside, the price was not able to get back above the 61.8% retracement level (nor the 200 day moving average – this is a key risk/bias level going forward). Those were close risk levels for shorts. Stay below keeps the bias to the downside.
The move back lower has now taken out the early session low at 0.68495 but only just barely (so far). Nevertheless, the pressure is on and the sellers are keeping control. Watch for close risk now at 0.6860 to 0.68634. That area was a swing area going back to December (see red numbered circles). Stay below keeps the intraday sellres more in control.
On the downside a break with momentum of the 0.68495 earlier session low, will look toward the 0.68373 swing lows from December 17 and December 18, followed by the 100 day moving average at 0.68247. The price last traded below the 100 day moving average on December 11 and December 10 but only marginallly below that MA. If the 200 day MA is a key bias level above, the 100 day MA below is also a key bias level to eye.